Why Does Violence Surge in Manipur Whenever Its Chief Minister Faces Crisis?

The Pattern of Initial Outbreak and Subsequent Escalations

By Vishal Arora

Newsreel Asia Perspective
November 23, 2024

Exterior view of a house in Imphal, Manipur, displaying a sign telling Kuki residents to 'go back' / By Vishal Arora, Newsreel Asia

Manipur is burning yet again, marking its third major escalation since the violence began in May 2023. The initial outbreak and the three subsequent flare-ups have almost seemed predictable, each coinciding with challenges to the leadership of Chief Minister N. Biren Singh.

Let’s start with the latest escalation, which is still ongoing.

Third Escalation: Nov. 7, 2024

This escalation began on Nov. 7, 2024, when Zosangkim Hmar, a 31-year-old Kuki-Zo woman and mother of three, was assaulted and killed. Her death, alleged to involve rape, torture and burning, occurred without any apparent provocation, in Jiribam district.

After this tragic murder, 10 Kuki-Zo “village volunteers” were controversially and brutally gunned down by the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF). The village volunteers are members of a civilian guard—a role necessitated by the ongoing conflict.

Further, five Kuki-Zo churches, 14 homes and a petrol pump were set ablaze. At least six innocent Meitei civilians – women and children – were also tragically killed, and a Kuki-Zo man was found dead, among other violent incidents.

The Nov. 7 killing of the Kuki-Zo woman occurred just a day before the Supreme Court agreed to examine the “Manipur Tapes,” a leaked audio recording which allegedly features Chief Minister Singh’s voice discussing violent tactics amid the ongoing ethnic conflict.

The audio recording, brought to public attention by The Wire, claims that at least two Meitei groups, banned under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), were made to collaborate with security forces. It also suggests that the use of lethal ammunition during the initial phase of violence was supported.

The Supreme Court’s Nov. 8 order stated, “Before the Court can consider the submissions which have been made on the basis of an audio clip, we deem it appropriate to grant the petitioners an opportunity to file before this Court material indicating the authenticity of the clip.”

While the court order was issued on Nov. 8, a Friday, it is standard practice for the court to notify the respondent, in this case the Union of India, about a week before the proceedings. For this particular instance, that would have been on Nov. 4, a Monday. It’s understood that the central government would have then informed the Manipur government. Regardless, the case was initially filed by Advocate Prashant Bhushan on Oct. 9. Thus, the chief minister must have anticipated media focus on the Manipur Tapes.

Now, let’s turn our attention to the second flare-up.

Second Escalation: Sept. 1, 2024

The previous escalation started on Sept. 1, 2024, and claimed 11 lives. It erupted about two weeks after The Wire first brought the “Manipur Tapes” to the public domain, which led to Kuki-Zo groups calling for the chief minister’s resignation and a speedier investigation into his purported admissions in the tapes.

The Manipur police, which reports directly to the chief minister who also holds the home portfolio, accused Kuki-Zo groups of using military-grade drones and rockets—a claim that the Kuki-Zo community vehemently denied. The only alleged evidence was held by the police force, without independent verification and outside the knowledge of the army or the central forces.

On Sept. 4, Advocate Prashant Bhushan formally requested the Commission of Inquiry,  which was set up by the Union Ministry of Home Affairs to investigate the Manipur violence, to file a First Information Report against the chief minister in response to the contents of the Manipur Tapes.

About 10 days later, a leaked copy of the purported intelligence report emerged from the chief minister’s office, claiming that 900 “Kuki militants” had entered into Manipur from Myanmar with a plan to target Meitei villages around Sept. 28. This information was strangely shared with the public at a press conference by a senior official, rather than being communicated discretely to the Indian Army, or at least the Assam Rifles stationed at the India-Myanmar border—who were better equipped than ordinary citizens to respond.

Two days before the alleged planned attack, the Manipur government retracted the statement regarding the so-called intelligence input.

Now, let’s examine the first escalation.

First Escalation: June 6, 2024

The first escalation occurred after a Meitei farmer’s death was attributed, without evidence, to a Kuki-Zo armed group in early June. That was the time when the Manipur Chief Minister was being blamed for the poor showing of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 general elections, the results of which were announced in early June.

On June 6, in alleged retaliation for the death of the Meitei farmer, some Meiteis reportedly set fire to houses belonging to the Kuki-Zo community. In response, members of the Kuki-Zo community also burned houses of the Meiteis. The Hindu reported at the time that over 1,000 people had been displaced, including about 800 from the Kuki-Zo communities and roughly 220 from the Meitei community, as a result of the cycle of violence that followed.

Now, let’s revisit the outbreak of the violence that occurred over 18 months ago.

Initial Outbreak: May 3, 2023

The ongoing violence began on May 3, 2023, when a long-simmering dispute over land ownership and identity between the Meitei majority and the Kuki-Zo tribes exploded into full-blown violence. It came about 10 days after the resignation of the fourth BJP member of legislative assembly (MLA). Raghumani Singh stepped down on April 24, 2023, from his post as Chairman of the Manipur Renewable Energy Development Authority, as reported by Deccan Herald.

Resignations had piled up as dissent simmered within the ruling party. Many were unhappy with the leadership of Biren Singh, about a year after his second term began. The murmurs of discontent grew louder, with reports of MLAs camping in New Delhi, attempting to make their grievances heard by the BJP high command. Just as the ground began to shift under Singh’s political feet, violence broke out—displacing political focus with chaos.

The pattern is evident: whenever the chief minister’s leadership comes under scrutiny or he faces calls for accountability, violence flares up, effectively diverting public attention from political crises. This trend implies that political survival might be prioritised over maintaining peace in the state.

The consistent lack of response from the central government, despite the deaths of hundreds and the displacement of tens of thousands, along with an apparent acceptance of these disruptive events, points to at least an indifference at the national level towards the ongoing turmoil in Manipur.

The people of Manipur — Meitei, Kuki-Zo, Naga and others — certainly deserve a peaceful and stable environment. But whether this latest flare-up will be the last remains uncertain. The true test may come with the next leadership crisis or demands for accountability facing the chief minister.